Caveat Emptor: It appears we’re in bullshit poll season…

It strongly appears both Mississippi and Louisiana have highly questionable polling make the news cycle, happening first in Louisiana:

Support for Trump in Louisiana plunges, poll says: See results, how that impacts governor’s race ~ Tyler Bridges

In an ensuing conversation about that story on Twitter the one thing we agreed upon was that there was not enough information provided about the polling methodology to determine if the poll was BS or held some validity though the results seems way off kilter based on Louisiana being almost a Ruby Red State.

Tim Morris at the Times Picayune picked up on that citing another pollster (Morning Consult) which had some drastically different numbers. Worth noting is the Advocate’s pollster, Market Research Insight is a B+ rated polling company according to Five Thirty Eight while Morning Consult rates a B- so we are at least in apples to apples territory comparing them.

Dan Fagan, an unofficial Louisiana Republican Party Spokesperson, was more direct and revealed where the Market Research Poll likely went off the tracks:

Kennedy says only half of black respondents said they would vote for Edwards in the fall. Kennedy says typically, 90% of blacks vote Democrat, so he adjusted the African American response in his poll from 50% to 90%.

Having pulled statistical samples a few times myself I recognize that particular technique but I also understand that essentially changing the answer you get from a sample increases the risk of bias in a major way. According to both Fagan and Morris Louisiana Republicans are claiming the numbers were cooked to keep Trump out of the Louisiana Governor’s Race. I personally believe the Market research Poll must have one or more fatal flaws.

Here in Mississippi Yall Politics is trumpeting a Tate Reeves poll which shows him owning every other candidate handily. In political circles it is well known that former Chief Justice Waller jumped into the Governor’s race on the GOP side because they perceive Tate Reeves would be vulnerable to Attorney General Jim Hood in the general election and that has been born out in the polling done to this point. Early this week Adam Ganucheau of Mississippi Today filed a story on Waller visiting Hattiesburg that included this quote from Willis Lott:

“I’m supporting Bill Waller because he has a vision for a better Mississippi,” Willis Lott, former president of Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College, told a reporter as the breakfast group listened. “Tate Reeves, in his years as lieutenant governor, has not shown that he has a vision. Plus he’s arrogant, and a lot of people know it.”

Willis Lott is neither a blow hard-lightweight or known for calling people arrogant as Higher Education Presidents typically are very temperate in their choice of words. His choice of words is therefore stunning. Continue reading “Caveat Emptor: It appears we’re in bullshit poll season…”

Let’s go completely politically incorrect and examine the Sun Herald’s endorsement of Johnny DuPree for Gov.

Folks I’ve mentioned this privately to a few folks including one of the Anna Maria’s of the Slabbed that Mississippi could well elect its first post reconstruction African-American to statewide office in Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree.  I’ve personally met the man and his daughters on a few occasions dating back over the last 20 years and the man exudes gravitas. He and his family are class acts truly committed to making their community a better place. Left out of the Sun Herald endorsement is the fact that when he was first elected Mayor of Hattiesburg the city had a white majority electorate and is still almost evenly spilt racially and he has been re-elected twice.  He simply gets the job done as mayor.

DuPree has refused to sling mud at his opponent, affectionately known here on Slabbed as Phildo.  By all accounts the campaign has been remarkably clean as Mayor DuPree has stuck to his message of economic development for small business, support for public education and honoring the state’s promise made to its retirees, who often worked for less pay than the private sector offers specifically for the retirement benefit.

Now while DuPree has refused to sling mud Slabbed has often had something to say about Phildo, especially last year during the oil spill when he acted as Tony Hayward’s briefcase boy constantly downplaying the environmental impacts of the spill.  People down here on the coast in particular still remember Bryant’s jackassery when he dismissed the gasoline like fumes that had invaded the coast as local residents smelling “lawn mower fumes“. After his display last year the best I can say about him is he is a simple ignorant redneck asshole.

But Phil has another side folks that includes a nice vindictive streak to go along with the assholery as the aftermath from his 2007 Lite Gov campaign well revealed in his treatment of fellow republican Charlie Ross after the primary election. There are lots of such skeletons in Phildo’s past and next month they could well come back to bite the man. I say that because of a conversation about the election I had with an elderly lady recently, who actually brought the subject up to me while making small talk.  To set up the gist of that conversation we need to turn to Mel Brooks via Youtube: Continue reading “Let’s go completely politically incorrect and examine the Sun Herald’s endorsement of Johnny DuPree for Gov.”

A few quick random thoughts

If there is one idea that I’ve tried to carry with me every day since Katrina it is the notion of the true extent of the transitory nature of our existence. Now this notion could indeed be viewed as a bummer because everything is destined to end the only question is when. My reaction is to attempt to recognize the blessings we also receive each day and simply appreciate the people that matter most in everyday life. I mention this because I’ve been mostly away from the blog this week as I have to pull double duty in the day job as a member of the business family deals with  such a transition I spoke of above. We all get hit with such realities at points in time on the road of life and in a small shop the business family gets to share both the triumphs and the tragedies that way. One blessing I have is the fact that Slabbed has kept humming right along without me via the open thread among other recent posts kept stocked with material via our great commenters. Thanks to all.

That said there are a few things still happening in the world one of which is Mississippi’s Neshoba County Fair which is a favorite among the political class here in Mississippi, especially in an election year. I tuned into twitter yesterday finding out such great factoids such as no one really paid attention to what Commish Mike Chaney had to say in his speech, that Billy Hewes isn’t afraid to scapegoat welfare recipients and Mexicans to satisfy his lust for lite Gov and that his opponent Tate Reeves has become an expert in making Hewes look exactly like the fool he is. Twitter is a wonderful thing folks and I enjoyed seeing a diverse group of tweeple such as Patsy Brumfield, Alan Lange and Frank Corder covering the speeches.

We have a primary election next week in Mississippi and to the extent the local democrat party does not have a pulse 5 of the 8 statewide offices will be decided next Tuesday in the GOP primary. If you are bright enough to read Slabbed then you don’t need me telling you how to vote but I will disclose that I’ll be supporting Tate Reeves for Lite Gov because he is 1. Not a fluffer like Hewes, 2. Is not a Nationwide Agent representing Team Insurance like Hewes in the legislature and 3. Is clearly the better candidate. If you believe the polling Hewes is on his way to a first class ass kicking and that warms the cockles of my heart. Continue reading “A few quick random thoughts”