“Journos”

There is a reason Nassim Taleb hates “Journos“.

Here’s Everything That Could Go Wrong in 2016 ~ Bloomberg

Investors can’t ignore this or other so-called Black Swan scenarios following a year that surprised the world with record refugee flows and brutal terror attacks. In 2016, unexpected events will take on heightened importance as the Fed ends an era of ultra-cheap credit. Markets will lose the cushion that’s shielded them from geopolitical shocks such as the Arab uprisings and the annexation of Crimea.

You gotta appreciate the way the authors tackle QE describing it as a market risk mitigation tool. Such is a fools game but that is not what attracted me to the piece. What did attract me was the authors terming the events they predict as “Black Swan” scenarios linking Taleb’s book where he coined the phrase. Here is what the cover to the book says:

A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

So yes, Cortez showing up was certainly a Black Swan type event for the Aztecs but not necessarily for Cortez. The again the Aztecs did not have Bloomberg getting them the news. I just question terming the unlikely predictions for 2016 as Black Swans since the writers predicted them.

Speaking of predictions, Black Swans, Normal Distributions and Fat Tails has anyone seen Karen Clark these days?

The trick is in the polling methodology

Mary Landrieu’s only chance is to win outright in the primary:

Two polls predict Senate runoff, but differ in support for Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy ~ Bruce Alpert

Meantime the statistical gurus over at FiveThirtyEight have increased Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning to 79% with their latest simulation (Election tab). Drilling down on the polling data shows that many of the polls in the Louisiana Senate race are from C rated pollsters though Suffolk University, which conducted one of the latest Louisiana Senate polls is B rated. All the polls line up with Landrieu losing to Bill Cassidy, the main difference being in victory margin.