Here’s Everything That Could Go Wrong in 2016 ~ Bloomberg
Investors can’t ignore this or other so-called Black Swan scenarios following a year that surprised the world with record refugee flows and brutal terror attacks. In 2016, unexpected events will take on heightened importance as the Fed ends an era of ultra-cheap credit. Markets will lose the cushion that’s shielded them from geopolitical shocks such as the Arab uprisings and the annexation of Crimea.
You gotta appreciate the way the authors tackle QE describing it as a market risk mitigation tool. Such is a fools game but that is not what attracted me to the piece. What did attract me was the authors terming the events they predict as “Black Swan” scenarios linking Taleb’s book where he coined the phrase. Here is what the cover to the book says:
A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
So yes, Cortez showing up was certainly a Black Swan type event for the Aztecs but not necessarily for Cortez. The again the Aztecs did not have Bloomberg getting them the news. I just question terming the unlikely predictions for 2016 as Black Swans since the writers predicted them.
@nntaleb fat tails
— Grurray (@Grurray) December 15, 2015