Meantime the statistical gurus over at FiveThirtyEight have increased Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning to 79% with their latest simulation (Election tab). Drilling down on the polling data shows that many of the polls in the Louisiana Senate race are from C rated pollsters though Suffolk University, which conducted one of the latest Louisiana Senate polls is B rated. All the polls line up with Landrieu losing to Bill Cassidy, the main difference being in victory margin.
In the past week we’ve had a U.S. Senate runoff primary election that saw the incumbent/underdog come from behind and win based upon expanding the electorate beyond traditional GOP support bases. Then of course, of all the crazy, zany things that accompanied the election such as discussion of Thad’s boss-tenant relationship with senior staffer Kay Weber along Constitutional Clayton sneaking into Rose Cochran’s nursing home room and snapping a few photos, one Clayton’s alleged co-conspirators, GOP stalwart Mark Mayfield puts a bullet in his own head, evidently unable to deal with the pressure of being charged as Clayton’s co-conspirator. At this point it is worth noting it is not clear what, if any law Clayton, a now notorious dipshit, broke in taking Rose Cochran’s pic. Here is what I think is the best piece on the Mayfield suicide:
Just when you think someone has Boss Hogg on the ropes, he goes all biblical and whips out an old school trick from his Gris-gris bag. Turns out black Democrats still matter in Mississippi as Scooby Doo and political operatives like him got some paying work rustling up eligible black voters to participate in the GOP primary runoff. That act of engagement was the difference maker for Cochran. It has also infuriated half the GOP electorate.
Here is a three pack of worthy links, first up the straight news account:
For the time being, though, Tea Party populism is boxed in in such a way that it only further serves the establishment cause. But, unlike the perpetually moribund and bought off left, the populists on the right are the only players with even a slight chance of shaking things up. In many ways that’s a frightening prospect but it might also be the closest thing to a hopeful prospect one can imagine right now.
Jeffrey equates Bobby Jindal with the TEA Party and while I think it is true Jindal panders to the TEA Party he is not one of them. Same for Steven Palazzo. As for Cantor’s crushing primary election loss a couple of days ago The Economist had an interesting take:
Most GOP members have more to fear from their primary voters than from the general election in November. The Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics, two political augurs, agree that there are only 17 competitive House races out of 435, so for most Republican congressmen the risk of suffering the same fate as Mr Cantor feels like the bigger threat to their jobs.
In my opinion, the Democrats could well benefit from a purge of its career politicos. Instead we’re treated to the specter of the other party watching in horror as certain of the GOP old guard are turned out on their hineys by the voters.