The trick is in the polling methodology

Mary Landrieu’s only chance is to win outright in the primary:

Two polls predict Senate runoff, but differ in support for Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy ~ Bruce Alpert

Meantime the statistical gurus over at FiveThirtyEight have increased Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning to 79% with their latest simulation (Election tab). Drilling down on the polling data shows that many of the polls in the Louisiana Senate race are from C rated pollsters though Suffolk University, which conducted one of the latest Louisiana Senate polls is B rated. All the polls line up with Landrieu losing to Bill Cassidy, the main difference being in victory margin.

Why Mary Landrieu is a short timer at the trough……

The local media is trying to make the Louisiana senate race sound like it will be competitive but Jeffrey points to the major demographic changes that all work against Mary Landrieu. Meantime the good folks over at FiveThirtyEight rate Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning today at 78%. Landrieu pulled the last two elections outta the hat, today looks like the magic is gone.

INYBUAR: Never a dull moment

In the past week we’ve had a U.S. Senate runoff primary election that saw the incumbent/underdog come from behind and win based upon expanding the electorate beyond traditional GOP support bases. Then of course, of all the crazy, zany things that accompanied the election such as discussion of Thad’s boss-tenant relationship with senior staffer Kay Weber along Constitutional Clayton sneaking into Rose Cochran’s nursing home room and snapping a few photos, one Clayton’s alleged co-conspirators, GOP stalwart Mark Mayfield puts a bullet in his own head, evidently unable to deal with the pressure of being charged as Clayton’s co-conspirator.  At this point it is worth noting it is not clear what, if any law Clayton, a now notorious dipshit, broke in taking Rose Cochran’s pic.  Here is what I think is the best piece on the Mayfield suicide:

Mayfield’s death ‘puts an exclamation point’ on election ~ Sam Hall

Of course over the weekend we get a bonus DUI:

Hinds County GOP chairman Pete Perry arrested for DUI ~ Sam Hall

Pete Perry!??!  Pete Perry???! And slowly I turned,,,,,

Republican Pete Perry Examines DEMOCRATIC Primary In HANCOCK County? ~ Cottonmouth Continue reading “INYBUAR: Never a dull moment”

Scooby Doo to the rescue!

Just when you think someone has Boss Hogg on the ropes, he goes all biblical and whips out an old school trick from his Gris-gris bag. Turns out black Democrats still matter in Mississippi as Scooby Doo and political operatives like him got some paying work rustling up eligible black voters to participate in the GOP primary runoff. That act of engagement was the difference maker for Cochran.  It has also infuriated half the GOP electorate.

Here is a three pack of worthy links, first up the straight news account:

Cochran Wins Mississippi Runoff, Edges TEA Partyer ~ AP

And now a couple from some of those that are infuriated starting with our friend Scott over at The Hayride:

Cochran Won In Mississippi ~ Scott McKay

Scott goes biblical himself quoting Mark. Don’t let the understated headline fool you folks as Scott has a must read up. Next up are the folks over at Red State:

The Marionettes Remain Uncut ~ Erick Erickson

Erickson has a very interesting take on the politics at play: Continue reading “Scooby Doo to the rescue!”

And here they come again down the stretch!

When I think of the tomorrow’s primary election, I’m viewing it through a longer term lens:

Not that long ago I wrote that the Occupy movement and the TEA Party had far more in common with each other than they ever will with the politicians that purport to represent them.

Before those of you on the political right go into raging denial consider this from one of the smartest guys in the room that hails from the left about Eric Cantor’s crushing primary defeat:

For the time being, though, Tea Party populism is boxed in in such a way that it only further serves the establishment cause. But, unlike the perpetually moribund and bought off left, the populists on the right are the only players with even a slight chance of shaking things up. In many ways that’s a frightening prospect but it might also be the closest thing to a hopeful prospect one can imagine right now.

Jeffrey equates Bobby Jindal with the TEA Party and while I think it is true Jindal panders to the TEA Party he is not one of them. Same for Steven Palazzo.  As for Cantor’s crushing primary election loss a couple of days ago The Economist had an interesting take:

Most GOP members have more to fear from their primary voters than from the general election in November. The Cook Political Report and RealClearPolitics, two political augurs, agree that there are only 17 competitive House races out of 435, so for most Republican congressmen the risk of suffering the same fate as Mr Cantor feels like the bigger threat to their jobs.

And what does this have to do with the commonalities I detect between the political left and right? Its that P word again, Populism. The folks at The Economist detect the intersection of right and left in just the right spot in corporate welfare: Continue reading “And here they come again down the stretch!”

Mississippi Senate race takes unexpected turn towards doing indecent things with local animals

Thad was evidently in Hattiesburg…..

He didn’t see the Mack Truck either…….

Eric Cantor’s primary loss an ‘apocalyptic moment’ for the GOP ~ Tribune wire services

Of course these days, the crowd in Washington DC appears so out of touch with common folks:

Again, there many superficial media portrayals of the race up in Virginia but if one digs a bit deeper the complexities come into sharper focus:

In my opinion, the Democrats could well benefit from a purge of its career politicos. Instead we’re treated to the specter of the other party watching in horror as certain of the GOP old guard are turned out on their hineys by the voters.