Other Voices | Tom Callaghan: Observations No. 1

Posted on April 8, 2019

HAS TRUMP HACKED THE POLLS? How hard would it be to hack the polls? Not very hard at all. Why would anyone want to? Think about where we are now. The Conventional Wisdom holds that Trump can’t be removed from office because his base is still with him. We “know” his base is still with him because “the polls” say they are. In other words, the polls ARE the Conventional Wisdom.

The polls are Trump’s life line. They are key to whatever power Trump has left on Capitol Hill (elected officials watch the polls constantly) and his ability to draw crowds in so called “Trump Country.” Currently, Gallup has Trump at 39% job approval which is on the low side for a normal President interested in successfully governing. That’s not Trump. Trump is in survival mode. Actual public service and stewardship…please, that’s not Trump’s cup of tea. Trump has a desperate need to survive. He has to stay in the White House. Take him out of the White House and he’s looking at lawsuits, back taxes and criminal trials at the State and Federal Level.

If you look at Trump’s Job Approval numbers (Gallup) since he’s been in office they haven’t been above 45% or below 35%. That narrow band makes me suspicious. (Obama fluctuated between 69% and 40% and George W Bush between 90%, right after 9-11, and 25%). Trump’s poll numbers look managed and phony. How would Trump’s people execute a hack? Not my field of expertise…ask Mark Zuckerberg. I do know ethical considerations didn’t (or wouldn’t) stop them. Good poll numbers beget better poll numbers. The subject appears in command and looks like a winner. Bad poll numbers beget worse poll numbers as the subject appears out of control and looks like a loser.

Do you think the guy who gave us Trump University and bone spurs is going to leave his fate in the hands of his fellow citizens responding to poll questions and not seek to doctor the system? I don’t think so either. Continue Reading…..

39 thoughts on “Other Voices | Tom Callaghan: Observations No. 1”

    1. Hey Doug…

      Great stuff in those links to 538.

      If the American people don’t care about telling the truth and being a decent person anymore that’s both
      New and Bad. We’ve had some Presidents with some major faults in the post World War ll era, but none,
      at the level of Trump.

      By the way, I don’t know anyone who gets more done in a day that you. Keep at it.

      1. Thank you Tom. I do not feel I’m getting enough done today but it helps to rise early.

        You nut shelled it Tom, in less than 2 decades we’ve gone from Warren Buffets 3 I’s, with integrity being the most important quality to an end justifies the means mentality where otherwise decent and moral people give a pass to immoral conduct. Young folks see it which is why more and more reject organized religion because of the hypocrisy.

        Trump gets a pass with this crowd because Bill Clinton was a cad under the theory that two wrongs make a right. Granted there are a few that approved of neither but most simply change their opinions to fit the current political scene. 538 has covered that too:

        https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/people-are-changing-their-views-on-race-and-gender-issues-to-match-their-party/

        Turns out Roger Ailes had it nailed years ago working for the last divisive President Richard Nixon:

        “Today television news is watched more often than people read newspapers, than people listen to the radio, than people read or gather any other form of communication,” the memo states. “The reason: People are lazy. With television you just sit — watch — listen. The thinking is done for you.” [emphasis in original]

        Brains need exercise. Unfortunately we now have the world biggest echo chamber in Facebook.

        1. A guy named David Frum was on Matthews Hardball last night. Frum is a Neo Con type, close with Adelson, but also smart and funny in a way. He’s fond of saying “in the Republican Party we don’t count voters, we count contributors.”

          Last night he said something that “got” Trump better than I’ve heard. He said “Trump is not a creature of principle, he’s a creature of appetite.” So true. Probably not women any more, but adulation and attention. He requires it. People who don’t feed that appetite have to go.

          The stage is set for someone to come to the rescue. Maybe Mueller has a last act. I would guess
          he’s not happy with Creepy Barr. Its not Mueller’s way to go rogue…but, special times require special responses. He could set the country on fire…a necessary fire…if he viewed it as his duty to do so.

          Power to the People

          1. Tom,
            Mueller has had 2 years and 35 million dollars. If he couldn’t afford a “match” with that kind of time and revenue, I don’t know what to say.

            1. The left can’t handle the truth! They were the perpetrators. Trump is just not politically correct! We have had that shit for 2 decades now we got men in women’s restrooms and illegal
              Citizens with more rights and privileges than gold star children! Really WTF!

            2. Hello Lana…

              Always glad to hear from you. I didn’t get the “match” reference until it occurred to me I
              had talked about “setting the country on fire.”

              On Mueller, I think that is somebody we can both admire. G W Bush appointed him to the Directorship of the FBI. He took office and 9-11 happened a few days later. He would not allow FBI agents to participate in “enhanced interrogation” tactics. When he completed his 10 year term Obama asked him to stay two more years which required an act of Congress. It passed overwhelmingly. I encourage you to read up on his background. He is
              a throw back to the “Greatest Generation”. The WW II generation, when patriotism was
              the rule, not the exception.

              As a special counsel in possession of the kind of information that he has, it would be out of the ordinary for him to enter the political arena himself as a candidate. If he were to decide that present circumstances called for actions above and beyond the ordinary…that would historic.

              Mueller vs Trump. That would set the country on fire. The fire of Righteousness. Let the best man win.

              1. Tom,
                You are much better versed on Mueller than I, which wouldn’t take much, but that is why I said with his credentials, 2 years, and $35 mills, I just don’t know what to say.

              2. Jared and Ivanka can blow through well over $35 Million of Government Money before lunch on any given day.

  1. Y’all will scream and try to find some loop hold again but America ain’t ready for socialism. If you make your wage or way in the government system you like the left. If you make your way in the competitive world you support trump. Argue all you want it is what it is.

    1. Sure America is Just Sayn, it already has it. Your local electric cooperative meets the definition of social ownership ie socialism. Also true for every water association and Mississippi has a multitude. Where management is good these cooperatives flourish, where it ain’t all I can say is there is no such thing as a free lunch.

      We even have national socialism for you right wing freaks. Maybe being able to mix and match is what makes America truly great.

    2. I’ve been making my wage in the competitive world since I left the Government in 1972. I’m not a socialist. I do believe in things like social security and medicare which were viewed as creeping socialism
      when they came in. I also believe in helping those who, for one reason or another, are unable to help themselves.

      I like people in the political world who have honor and are truthful. I was never a Clinton person. Neither
      Bill or Hillary. I was an Obama guy for sure and I have great admiration for Nancy Pelosi.

      I don’t consider Trump to be a Conservative. I consider him to be a dishonorable liar.

        1. Bless your heart. You sound like you need a safe space where people won’t judge you for supporting a racist charlatan whose life’s work involves running scams like Trump University.

          1. You know that is the mantra that is killing the left. Very vile and unacceptable to others feelings on the direction of the country.

            I don’t need a safe space like the liberals. I feel completely at home where ever I am with who I am. I don’t need consensus to be acceptable and neither does anyone else just don’t feel they have to see it your way to feel that warm fuzzy. I get it every day being an American and a Mississippian with the flag and all. Sorry if this offends someone it is not meant to.

            1. That’s good, self pity is so unbecoming. 😉

              Seems to me there are plenty of people in both political parties that live their lives in complete denial fueled by bullshit from phonies like Joy Ann Reid, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Rachael Maddow, etc etc that specialize in building straw men to define the opposition they supposedly oppose.

              Today’s boogie man on the right is socialism. According to Google auto complete and its search results for the query “what is the true definition of socialism”. According to Merriam Webster dictionary:

              1. any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods.

              We’re educated people so we already knew that. Is socialism bad? Right there in Hancock County is headquartered a classic example of a socialist institution also known as Coast Electric which operates as a socially owned electric cooperative. Every year those that bought electricity from them get a dividend check. We have EPAs across the state and once upon a time that was the only way folks in rural areas had access to electricity.

              Same is true for every water association in the state and there are a ton of them. Before it was privatized Hancock Medical Center is another example and there are lots of folks who think the Sups made a mistake letting Oschner take over.

              I think it will take a bit more to convince people that aren’t sleep walking through life to vote Republican by dropping silly buzzwords. One man’s opinion anyway.

              https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/12/republicans-socialists-democrats-campaign-2020-1271706

              1. You have a link for that bit of bullshit? The only voter fraud I’ve seen recently was in North Carolina and it involved Republicans committing the fraud. [Link}

              2. no voter ID wanted, Pelosi wanting underage voters made legal. For love the of Christ 16 year olds. No declaration on census for legal status etc… Just my thoughts. You can want what you want. Elections matter. Vote. Twice if you can.

  2. Core people. First responders, police fire fighters, emergency response, military etc., the core value of America agrees with with President Trump. The left is trying to fill holes that are so small at the sacrifice of the majority that is just a miserable distraction in my opinion. May be wrong but it is my opinion and now I can have it without personal, professional or otherwise being condemned legally!

  3. That is some of the people’s opinion but the right is being pushed down and called every phobe known to man. Done we have to google when we just have a conservative opinion. The left wants our money, assets and soul to take care of a small sector of people who may not feel accepted! Just sayn my perspective to yours.

  4. Tom,
    If Jared and Ivanka blow $35 mill of government $$$ on lunch on any given day, that should be public documents just like Mueller’s cost of the investigation. Can you share with us an occasion where that happened? We know where Mueller did his work for which he and his staff have been compensated.

    1. Not ON lunch. BEFORE lunch. Use of Gov. planes. Extensive security. All on the public record.

      Of course I took literary license.

      Mueller is not known as the kind of guy who lives high on the Gov. If you have evidence to the contrary,
      I’m sure you will share it. They had 16 lawyers and an equal number of investigators working 22 months.
      They finished their work and a darn sight faster and on point than Ken Starr.

      You are hinting at impropriety on the part of Mueller. What is your proof?

    2. Not ON lunch. BEFORE lunch. Allow me a bit of literary license. Then, start with the use off gov. time to keep on redoing his questionnaires for security clearance. Move on to dubious use of gov. planes to travel various and sundry places in search of funding to clear up his debt on 666 Fifth Ave. Commuting
      to Mar Largo, etc..

      If memory serves, you’ve mentioned Mueller and two years plus $35 million twice. Are you suggesting he was ripping the gov. off? Do you have information regarding a pattern of conduct on Mueller’s part that makes him suspect?

      1. Not accusing Mueller of anything. It just seems to me, anyway, that 2 years is ample time and $35 mill. enough to solve what was being portrayed as a slam dunk case by so many in the press and public officials. A man of Mueller’s integrity, intelligence, experience should have been able to get the job done using the best legal minds and agency in the world. That’s all I am saying. Don’t know what to say beyond that??

        1. We will see if Mueller did indeed get the job done when we see the unreacted report. I can’t speak for the “so many” who thought this that or the other.

          I agree with your assessment of Mueller’s character.

          Peace Be With You.

          1. I don’t know anything about his character. Just have no evidence to correct your description of him. Now, some on the investigation team, Lisa and Peter, were, shall we say, distracted. You know what a negative effect those workplace affairs have job performance!!

  5. Step back Sarah Sanders. Make way for a real heavyweight. Bob Barr is the new Head Shill for the Founder of Tump University.

  6. Hahaha! Mueller was hired by Dems now his report is bogus. It is amazing how this works. Well the election is getn near. That is where it is decided on who thinks what! Is it Pencil Neck, Pocahontas, AOC, Talib, Omar and who else leading the charge. If I were Dem I would be looking at that equation of success.

  7. From what I am hearing in the “university” news in the last 3 weeks, Trump University has some competition in lack of ethical behavior from the Ivy Leaguers!! Corruption has no boundaries, and the entitlement mentality is not confined to the poor and lazy as some folks think.

    1. While not wanting to endanger the warm bond that exists between us, as seekers of truth, I’m not sure which Ivy Leaguers about which you are speaking. I do know of two who are very much in the news this evening…Jared Kushner and Robert Mueller.

      Now, Mr. Kushner’s application to Harvard was initially viewed as unlikely to be successful. His fortunes were enhanced when his father expended a bit of the family fortune in the form of a million dollar gift to Harvard and Harvard immediately found itself taken by Jared’s hidden assets and accepted him immediately…by which I mean after Papa Kushner’s check cleared.

      Now Robert Mueller, I hope we can agree, is a horse of a different color. Bob, let’s pretend he’s our pal,
      attended St. Paul’s Prep in Concord, New Hampshire. A wonderful Prep School where our old friend Senator Whitehouse of Kavanaugh Hearings fame attended. Mueller’s record at St.Paul’s was exemplary.
      His entry into Princeton required no exta cash to impress the admissions committee. The only real “problem” he encountered after Princeton was getting into the Marines. He was initially turned down because of a bad knee from his Captaincy of the Princeton Lacrosse team. Bob re-applied a year later and got his wish…combat in Viet Nam. There is no evidence that the Mueller family “paid off” the Marines to let their son join.

      Of the two Ivy Leaguers in the news, Jared Kushner and Robert Mueller, I’m most impressed by Mueller.

      1. Wasn’t talking about any individuals. Was referring to the universities who were involved in the movie stars’ scheme to get their kids into the best schools.

        1. “I see” said the blind man as he picked up his hammer and saw.

          The people in the “get into school scheme”, from my recollection, were usually able to get their offspring situated for well under $100,000…25K for someone to take the SAT and 50K to the soccer or fencing coach for a spot reserved for that team

          I guess Jared was not so hot at sports…might have had bone spurs…who knows.

          1. ??? You are better than that answer, Tom. I thought so anyway.
            In the meantime, while all of the subpoenas are being issued, will one ever go out to Barack Obama and his intelligence people on the Russian collusion? After all, it happened on their watch.

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