Seems that everyone is laying down their chips. First up is the Senate race, which is attracting considerable amounts of national attention:
— Vechorik (@informative9) May 31, 2014
The Mississippi District 4 House race is between two coast guys so the hometown newspaper’s endorsement is huge. In this instance the challenger wins:
Let’s send Gene Taylor back to Congress ~ Sun Herald Editorial Board
The reasons they cite that make Gene the better Congressman are clear cut to all but the dumbest of the Fox News Kool Aid drinkers:
Accessibility – Gene was not an ivory tower guy, when he was at home he traveled the district to hear his people’s concerns first hand in town hall meetings. He conducted those meeting even when those meetings were disrupted and turned natsy in 2009 and 2010, the “disrupted and nasty” part supported behind the scenes by GOPers like Phil Bryant. Steven Palazzo’s solution to the problem his political party created was to not have any town hall meetings in favor of more scripted events that mostly excludes the general public.
Staff Quality – Gene’s staff was and will again be a seasoned bunch that know how to navigate the byzantine maze that is our Federal Government to directly help the people in Mississippi 4. Palazzo’s staff over these past 4 years? Let’s review:
- Heard on the Hill: Steven Palazzo’s Hill Staffers Gone Wild ~ Neda Semnani and Warren Rojas, Roll Call
- Staffers for Rep. Steven Palazzo fired after ‘frat house’ party and cover up ~ George Altman
- Former Palazzo Chief of Staff Michael Janus pleads guilty to Federal Felony ~ Douglas Handshoe
The Military – Gene won’t cut vital national defense programs out of his own home district just to make Speaker Boehner happy no siree. Gene is his own man that has looking out for his people as his prime directive as a congressman.
Hurricane Katrina – Gene was just the guy we needed when this Nation’s worst natural disaster of all time hit the Mississippi Coast. His staff worked tirelessly helping people in the recovery process by cutting through the red tape. When Superstorm Sandy hit the Northeast, Steven Palazzo voted to deny those impacted access to the same federal programs designed to help areas impacted by natural disasters recover.
As an aside Gene’s staff even outshined Thad Cochran’s staff after Katrina, who were too busy with “Affaires d’États“, the American translation of which I literally heard a Cochran staffer say to a pro bono client of mine that contacted Cochran’s DC staff via telephone after Katrina looking for help with SBA and IRS problems after the storm. Gene’s staff ultimately helped cut thorough the red tape with the IRS which enabled me to adequately represent the elderly couple in a tax dispute that literally spanned two decades.
These people were so impoverished their blue tarp was all they had that stood between them and the rain and the IRS made it impossible for them to fix their house. I could not have helped them without Gene’s staff help and that is the bottom line. As for “Affaires d’États”, I now take that to mean the Senator was too busy renewing the lease of his basement apartment up in DC to help out and this brings me back to the Senate race:
That’s right because Hancock and Pearl River Counties are part of the New Orleans media market, rightfully so despite the fact most of the Tee Vee Meteorologists treat us like red headed step children over here. I have an antenna in case I want to watch WXXV or WLOX but that urge is not great, especially when the newscasts have nothing but US Senate Ads from Thad and Chris playing Ad nauseam. Yeah, I’m trading that for the latest Senate ad featuring Mary Landrieu going all homepsun with her Dad Moon in a commercial that is reminiscent of Gilbert Hosebag and I like it that way. (I have something special coming on Mary later today)
Finally there is a new Thad ad out that evidently is asking cross over democrats for their vote. It is a sign he knows things are not going well with the GOP faithful here in Mississippi:
— Mouth off Yall (@MouthoffYall) May 31, 2014
My State Representative was straight to the point on this:
And this brings me to the Harper Poll that was released late last week because I thought the analysis was very good (h/t Jackson Jambalaya):
On the positive side of the ledger for Senator Thad Cochran, he maintains a lead just beyond the margin of error, his image with Republican voters is a net +16%, and 89% of voters have heard about the incident involving the photographing of the Senator’s wife.
However, he is an incumbent under 50%, the photograph issue is not turning many voters against McDaniel who weren’t already there, and he is under performing his favorable image rating (52%) by 7% on the ballot (45%).
The McDaniel campaign has not persuaded voters to dislike Cochran, but the argument for a fresh start is proving compelling. Compelling enough for voters who are in fact fond of the 6-term Senator to give serious consideration to bringing him home.
Chris McDaniel is bloody and bruised but still standing. His image rating is approaching 1-to-1 and the flow of the campaign messages in the race is giving voters a worsening opinion of McDaniel (37% favorable to 50% unfavorable). But it appears that the mission for McDaniel is merely to stay viable as an alternative to the long-time incumbent.
The race appears to be a referendum not on any perceived misdeeds of Thad Cochran but rather a more general desire for change in leadership in Mississippi.
The problem is those in know question how reliable the polls numbers are given the sampling methodology they use.
So how is the senate race gonna turn out? Looks to me like a dead heat. I’m actually looking forward to the primary election on Tuesday so we can find out.