Gustav on my mind- UPDATED 5x "the right side of a hurricane is the wrong side to be on"

Moved the tracker Sop posted up so it would be easier to find as, like many of you, I’ve got Gustav on my mind. According the this story just posting on the Times Picayune

“The bottom line is that what Katrina and Rita didn’t destroy in 2005, this storm has the potential to do,”


UPDATE: just had message that footprint of Gustav is much larger than Katrina – meaning its going to step on a lot more folks when it lands. Just thought I’d add reminder that “the right side of a hurricane is the wrong side to be on” – that’s why the Coast of Mississippi saw so much damage. Remember NOLA flooding was after Katrina.

2nd update Hurricane-force winds will hit New Orleans, surge flooding threat rises for West Bank

The 10 p.m. forecast for Hurricane Gustav calls for its landfall to be just east of Morgan City early Monday afternoon as an intense Category 4 hurricane, a track that would bring hurricane force winds over most of the New Orleans area.

The eastern jog also would increase the potential for storm surge flooding of West Bank communities. The Slidell office of the National Weather Service this evening warned that it expects between 15 feet and 20 feet of storm surge near and to the right of the hurricane’s center as it goes ashore.

While it’s still unclear how high the water would be on the West Bank, farther away from the storm’s center, it could be high enough to overtop the incomplete levee system in that area.

Moving the diagonal path Gustav will take closer to New Orleans also increases the potential of surge water rising in Lake Borgne, the Industrial Canal and Lake Pontchartrain, which could test levees and walls in St. Bernard, eastern New Orleans and the Lower and Upper 9th Wards, as well as areas south of Slidell and Madisonville.

Heavy rainfall also is expected to accompany Gustav, with between 10 and 15 inches of rain expected in areas nearest its center.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast early Monday morning, followed by hurricane force winds only a few hours later, the National Weather Service said.

Gustav Models

Gustav “mother of all storms”

Warning that Hurricane Gustav is the “mother of all storms,” Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday ordered a mandatory evacuation of the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and the east bank for noon.

“We want 100 percent evacuation,” Nagin said. “It has the potential to impact every area of this metropolitan area.”

Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles, he said. Gustav is about 900 miles and growing, Nagin said.

“This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina,” he said.

Todd Kimberlain, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center, said he’s not sure what Nagin meant by the storm’s footprint. However, he said, “if he means the area of most severe impact, it’s not a fair comparison at this point.”

“It’s not possible to calculate the area of most severe impact at this moment,” Kimberlain said, “so we can’t make a comparison.”

The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.

3rd Update

From the latest bulletin followed by map of Louisiana for those unfamiliar with the geography of the State and the Gustav “Top 10” from WWL.


Subject: Top Ten on Gustav

1) New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin says Gustav is “The mother of all storms! You need to be scared and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans… this is the storm of the century.” He has ordered a MANDATORY EVACUATION of the Westbank at 8am and ALL of New Orleans at noon.

2) Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard says residents need to get out ahead of Gustav for their own protection. He announced “The threat that is coming our way… is our worst case scenario. You have not endured this type of storm… in our modern history Please, Please leave.” The Westbank of Jefferson is under a MANDATORY evacuation at 8:00am. Broussard says he will likely order a mandatory evacuation on the Eastbank soon.

3) St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis has announced a MANDATORY evacuation for all areas south of Interstate 12 and all areas east of Interstate 59 in St. Tammany Parish at 7am. He told Northshore residents
“We’re talking about 17 feet to 20 feet storm surge in St. Tammany Parish… it is extremely important to heed these warnings and evacuate.” There is a voluntary evacuation for the remainder of St. Tammany Parish

4) Other Parishes in Southeast Louisiana with MANDATORY evacuations are: Lafourche – Plaquemines – St. Bernard – St. Charles – St. John – St. Mary -Terrebonne- And Tangipahoa south of Highway 22

5) Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal says “This is a very, very serious storm… this is a storm that has a potential to cause tremendous damage… we could see flooding that is worse that what we saw in
Katrina.” He urged everyone to get out of Gustav’s path.

6) The National Hurricane Center says Gustav is a “very dangerous” category four storm barreling into the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 140 miles per hour.

7) Channel Four Chief Meteorologist Carl Arredondo says the track “shifted to the right” in the 10pm forecast from the National Hurricane Center. He says, “That is not good news. because that would bring the strongest of the winds closer to Southeast Louisiana, New Orleans and the River Parishes.

8 ) Gustav is forecast to become a monster category five hurricane and make landfall in or near Southeast Louisiana Monday night or Tuesday morning.

9) All of the Louisiana coast is now under a hurricane watch. The National Hurricane Center says hurricane force winds will be whipping the coast in the next 36 hours.

10) Contra flow began at 4am. Authorities will turn all lanes of I-10, I-12, I-59, I-55 and The Causeway heading OUT of Southeast Louisiana to relieve miles and miles of bumper to bumper evacuee traffic.

4th update
Sop emailed this notice from Hancock County Emergency Management. If you look on the Louisiana map and see Gulfport, Hancock County – Katrina Ground Zero – sits between Gulfport and the MS-LA state line.

Hancock County, including the Cities of Bay St. Louis and Waveland, is issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning Sunday, August 31, 2008 at 11am for all areas south of I-10, and all areas North of I-10 that flooded during Hurricane Katrina. This includes all residents living on rivers, river inlets, bayous, creeks, in travel trailers, modular homes, mobile homes, homes that are under construction and/or partially constructed homes.

A mandatory curfew will be in effect beginning 10pm Sunday, August 31, 2008 and will remain in effect until 6am.

The Red Cross Shelter at Hancock North Central School of Highway 603 on Cuevas Town Road will be open at 11am on Sunday, August 31, 2008. This will be the only shelter open for this hurricane. No other shelters are available.

Hancock County will use the Bus Evacuation Plan for those needing a ride to the shelter. Contact emergency operations at 228-466-8201. The agency is located at 310 Old Spanish Trail, Bay St. Louis.

Tune in to WQRZ 103.5 FM and other local media for bus pick up points and times, as well as other Emergency Information.

5th Update

The NHC storm surge predictions are now out as this graphic indicates:

The Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities is a graphical product developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS), in cooperation with the NHC, with the intent to provide the emergency management community; federal, state, and local government agencies; media; maritime interests; and the general public with information that enhances their ability to make preparedness decisions specific to their own situations with regards to storm surge.

Mike Reader on WLOX indicates surge in Hancock County could range from 9-16 feet depending on exact landfall.

7 thoughts on “Gustav on my mind- UPDATED 5x "the right side of a hurricane is the wrong side to be on"”

  1. Well, as we await the entrance of the Ultimate Slabber,
    my email is in the profile of the Ladder
    I live in Memphis,
    in case any youz are headed north.
    We have World Class Red Cross.
    Also, we are spanking this hurricane over at the Ladder, any info links you want up there please do lay in the comments hopper.
    Can’t sleep so might as well do something useful, eh?

    Y’all take care and don’t fork around wit’it ok?

  2. Thanks, Editilla, it does look like the ultimate slabber, too. The straight line on the tracker makes it look like a rocket on target.

    I just keep thinking about all the newspaper stuffed in the levees as a repair. Stay in touch and keep us posted. I’m checking the Ladder and will do likewise.

  3. Our thoughts and prayers are with all the residents of the coast, my old home. I work for a major electric utility. We have already organized storm teams and my bags are packed to head your way as soon as the wind will allow.

  4. Last I heard from Steve yesterday he was lit, rambling on about getting the hell out of town. I have not heard from him since.

    Lower grades of gasolione are sold out in cerain areas of the coast. Traffic on I-10 east bound was very heavy.

    For some, like the previously slabbed, Gustav hits too close to home.

    In the country things are much calmer though people are making preparations as well.

    We’ll know much more tomorrow.

    For those away from here with a personal stake click here to listen to WWL radio.


  5. For Katrina ground zero the calculus is simple. If Gustav tracks west of the mouth of the Mississippi River Reader on WLOX forecasted 9 feet of surge which would not flood Waveland.

    If it tracks east of the mouth of the river then Reader forecatsed 16 feet which would flood Waveland south of the railroad tracks.

    The first outer tropical rains are in George County, the rain shield will be here in around 3 hours.


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