Mary Landrieu’s only chance is to win outright in the primary:
Two polls predict Senate runoff, but differ in support for Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy ~ Bruce Alpert
Meantime the statistical gurus over at FiveThirtyEight have increased Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning to 79% with their latest simulation (Election tab). Drilling down on the polling data shows that many of the polls in the Louisiana Senate race are from C rated pollsters though Suffolk University, which conducted one of the latest Louisiana Senate polls is B rated. All the polls line up with Landrieu losing to Bill Cassidy, the main difference being in victory margin.
And when the costs get passed along with the parties in charge bearing little financial risk it is no surprise to see a chart like this one. The runup into the latest earnings release is especially interesting.
Kemper County power plant price tag tops $6.1 billion as costs climb again, start-up delayed ~ Associated Press
I’m going to be spending some time on Edgar learning more about this mess for myself. I see stockcharts like the one linked above against the backdrop of these massive cost overruns at Kemper County and the term moral hazard immediately comes to mind. In layman’s terms, it is easy to take risks when someone else bears a disproportionate share of the financial burden.
Stay tuned because this is likely not the last of the bad news form Southern Company and the Kemper coal boondoggle.
Of course there has to be some minor mysteries to attract the sleuths in the Slabbed Nation:
Ritz-Carlton massage therapist arrested after customer reports sexual misconduct ~ Ken Daley
New Orleans police did not immediately respond to questions about the probe. It’s unclear why Russo was not arrested until 16 months after the woman made her complaint and five months after his arrest warrant was issued.
As several commenters to Daley’s piece noted, Charles Russo bears a striking resemblance to Jerry Seinfeld. Meantime here on Slabbed, Russo looks to soon be joining Keith in the Hall of Infamy.
There are some media outlets that self impose muck blackout periods in advance of elections, some as long as two weeks out. We can tell from this Advocate story on St Tammany DA Candidate Roy Burns claiming two homestead exemptions that if such a news blackout policy exists there, two weeks is not the deadline. I like that.
The Trainor campaign has complained about the Advocate’s coverage of his candidacy for DA, but it looks to me like the gang at the Advocate has been equal opportunity in this particular race. That said James Gill today continues to explore the civil suit-criminally charged St Tammany justice-industrial complex and the ties that bind the players. Worth noting is Brian Trainor’s campaign promise to not do civil work if elected DA, something he should enforce on the entirety of his office should he be elected. Full time criminal justice employees have no business doing outside work as it too easily leads to very bad places.
Finally I am ready to roll out some courthouse muck and maybe even a little something about Mary.
Somewhere in Johnny Lee’s candidacy for First Parish Court Judge and the support he is getting from local GOP power players illustrates why party affiliation is actually meaningless down South where everyone running either belongs to or switches just in advance of running to one political party.
The local media is trying to make the Louisiana senate race sound like it will be competitive but Jeffrey points to the major demographic changes that all work against Mary Landrieu. Meantime the good folks over at FiveThirtyEight rate Bill Cassidy’s chances of winning today at 78%. Landrieu pulled the last two elections outta the hat, today looks like the magic is gone.
Thursday, October 23rd, 2013
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
WHAT VOTERS FACE AT THE POLLS!
Election Day for the congressional and local elections is right around the corner. In fact, a Louisiana voter can absentee vote right now. The Secretary of State’s office predicts some 45 to 50 percent of registered voters will actually show up and vote. Having run that office for a number of years and predicting voter turnout through the 1980s, I predict closer to a 60 percent turnout. Current Secretary of State Tom Schedler and I have a lunch wager on whose prediction will be more accurate.
I was one of the first to vote by my home in Baton Rouge on the first day of absentee voting. And I can tell you the elections officials are strict on making everyone show a photo I.D. When I went in to vote, I was easily recognizable as the former Secretary of State, and the guy who spearheaded the building of the State Archives where the absentee voting takes place. I wrote the current election code that sets the rules for voting in Louisiana. So when it comes to the elections, no one is more recognizable I am. And most of these elections officials know well that I live just a few blocks from the voting precinct.
So after lots of visiting and refreshing of old friendships, I asked for an absentee ballot. The response was quick and to the point. “Sure Mr. Brown. But, of course, we’ll need to see a government issued photo I.D.” No exceptions here. And that’s how it should be. After all, I have to show a photo I.D. to cash a check at the bank, pick up a prescription at the drug store, get on an airplane, use a credit card for many purchases, give blood, get a passport, pick up a package at the post office, buy car insurance, buy a gun at a gun shop, do business at the social security office or the welfare office, sell items at a pawn shop — I could go on. So what’s the big deal about pulling out a photo I.D. at the polls?
The easiest parts of my ballot choices were my picks on the 14 constitutional amendments. I pulled the “NO” lever on them all. Continue Reading……….